The most important stage of any remedy is accurate diagnosis. Whether the problem concerns an individual, a society or a state, correctly identifying its root cause clarifies the path forward. Ignoring a problem leaves it intact. Fleeing from it allows it to wait. Surrendering permits it to dominate. Facing it, by contrast, opens constructive paths: applying a known solution or learning and overcoming the obstacle to gain new experience. Neglect, flight or surrender remain alternatives only for those who refuse both knowledge and will.

A simplified reading of the post-1945 order is useful. Exhausted European powers left space for American financial and energy interests to convene experts and design a framework for global influence. They backed a military figure suited to indirect campaigns. Dwight Eisenhower received that support. The State Department was strengthened and a presidential intelligence service, which later became the CIA, was established. Stephen Kinzer’s account of the Dulles brothers, who headed those organizations, illuminates important aspects of this trajectory. Understanding the present requires reading that history carefully.

From the earliest stages of the Arab-Israeli conflict through 1967 and to the present, the principal beneficiaries of continued strife have been the merchants of disaster and arms, foremost the American military-industrial complex that Eisenhower himself warned against.

A practical rule is to ask who profits from catastrophe. In the 1960s, military and religious leaderships were encouraged toward hostilities, drawing multisectarian Arab societies into conflicts fueled by successive waves of Jewish immigration from Europe and Russia. Some of the underlying thinking paralleled the earlier displacement of indigenous populations in North America.

Washington’s policies have repeatedly favored concentrated interests over the daily challenges facing ordinary citizens

Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed

The 1973 war produced limited Arab success yet prolonged the conflict and consolidated American regional influence. French Foreign Minister Michel Jobert observed that the true victor was neither the Israelis nor the Arabs but the US. Likud’s long dominance followed. President Richard Nixon noted that continuation of the conflict served Israeli and Jewish American interests, while President Jimmy Carter reportedly told Anwar Sadat that freedom of maneuver was limited and required dealing directly with Jewish leaders. Ezer Weizman spoke of the complex among European immigrants who regarded all Arabs as enemies.

Washington’s policies have repeatedly favored concentrated interests over the daily challenges facing ordinary citizens. Externally, selective interventions have produced fragile governing systems and resource insecurity, treating the developmental needs of other societies as secondary. Internally, rising public debt, political polarization and a form of capitalism that can erode the social cohesion it claims to strengthen have constrained the capacity to impose rules unilaterally.

Across much of the Arab world, this pattern supported military leaders and repressive systems that produced failed or failing states in which many people struggled to meet their basic needs — with the notable exception of the Gulf states.

In the US, Britain and France — the countries with the greatest influence over the Arab world — the fusion of capitalism and democracy has generated concentrated capital that disproportionately rewards the already wealthy while leaving many households with rising debt, higher healthcare costs and stagnant real wages. When concentrated capital merges with electoral competition, elections increasingly function as contests among donors rather than mechanisms for setting public priorities.

A “doctrine of inevitability” reinforces this dynamic by presenting technological and market outcomes as largely beyond genuine civic negotiation. When resistance is framed as futile, democratic capacity weakens.

Today, these three countries face overlapping political and economic pressures. In the US, President Donald Trump is in his second term and the Republicans control Congress, yet the midterm elections of Nov. 3 loom, with the Democrats poised to take the House and cost-of-living concerns dominant. Trump’s approval rate sits near 33 percent. Growth of nearly 2 percent is supported by artificial intelligence investment, yet inflation has risen to 3.7 percent, driven primarily by energy prices linked to conflict in the Middle East. Real wages are stagnant or declining and consumer sentiment is near historic lows.

Today is not a time for waiting — it is a time for reading events wisely and acting with determination

Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed

Britain’s Labour government under Andy Burnham, in office since July following Keir Starmer’s resignation, faces an autumn budget test amid high borrowing costs and energy-driven inflation; growth is resilient at near 1.3 percent but is expected to slow.

France under Emmanuel Macron, in the final months of his second term, has a fragile government without a stable majority, very weak growth of about 0.4 percent, a deficit well above EU targets and public debt near 119 percent of gross domestic product, accompanied by protests over living costs and deteriorating services.

Public debt as a share of GDP stands at about 124 percent in the US, 119 percent in France and 94 percent in Britain. All three continue to spend more than they collect while borrowing costs rise, automatically enlarging the debt stock.

We are in a transitional phase. For decades, the US and its principal allies maintained influence by supporting conflicts, wars, coups and leaders unable to deliver the minimum of local development. The result across much of the Arab world has been failed or failing states that became fertile ground for gangs and militias backed by regional powers.

What, then, should be done? Events must be read with an independent eye, drawing on the wisdom of earlier generations, deep insight, precise measurement and the principle of triangulation so that we consistently choose the lesser of two harms or the more beneficial of two goods. Strategic vision and the development of national capabilities are the real instruments of strength.

Read without false emotion, successful strategic planning turns the future we seek into lived reality. Great powers, corporate states and disaster capitalism make mistakes and then exploit crises to correct course in their own favor. Every state has its own plans, ambitions and fears. International relations are governed by interests and shifting balances of power, not by sentiment. The states of the Gulf Cooperation Council must study their own realities and futures and reassess their alliances with courage and wisdom. Interests change and balances shift, regardless of polished statements.

We should rely on our genuine sources of strength, prepare plans and alternatives and learn from history before it is too late. Saudi Arabia is advancing steadily toward sustainable development, committed to the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals, in order to build a prosperous future for all rather than for the wealthy alone.

On cross-border issues of technology, energy and security, sustained cooperation among multiple centers of power is a more realistic option than assuming that any single alliance can permanently write the rules for everyone. Inevitability is not a law of nature; it is a choice that reflects whose voice is counted.

At the individual level, understanding the problem is half the solution. Practical steps can create positive change: join collective efforts, as collective action multiplies impact; keep the larger picture in view, especially in complex conflicts such as the Palestinian-Israeli issue, without losing sight of the ultimate goal of a just peace and dignified coexistence; preserve diversity and draw the best from people everywhere; tell your story, since persuasion often lies in narrative; expose major falsehoods by highlighting misinformation and seeking truth; maintain a respectful and constructive tone; and harness the power of hope, which fuels the motivation for positive change. Together these steps create a ripple effect. We should become the change we wish to see.

Realism is necessary and wars are costly. The GCC states have demonstrated the ability to manage their differences through the art of distance without allowing disagreements to become ruptures. But realism does not mean accepting an entity that rejects the logic of the state, refuses partnership and exploits openness to build offensive capabilities. Success requires the close reading of actual behavior rather than slogans, clear conditions for any transition from an armed organization to a responsible authority, and the maintenance of deterrence until those conditions are met.

The strength of the GCC states lies in their agreement on a shared minimum — security of sea lanes and regional interests — without baseless accusations. The failure of states has produced powerful groups armed with modern weapons that can be manufactured locally, while expensive systems have repeatedly proven unable to counter them effectively.

America’s primacy since 1945 has rested on economic strength, institutional flexibility and domestic capacity as much as on military power. Long-term external commitments drain the resources required for hospitals, clinics, housing and daily living costs. As these foundations weaken, the conditions that support long-term competitiveness erode. The new normal of fiscal constraint and domestic pressure already narrows strategic options. Additional military spending will not reverse that trajectory. Sustainable influence begins with internal strength.

In an age of rapid change, one either reads events with insight or falls into the trap of fluctuating interests. Today is not a time for waiting — it is a time for reading events wisely and acting with determination. Let us rely on our genuine sources of strength, build national capabilities that can withstand shifting balances and choose institutions over permanent momentum before the bill comes due.

  • Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed is a researcher in strategic studies and public leadership and the author of “Saudi Arabia’s Transformation: Uncertainty and Sustainability” (Routledge, 2026). X: @TurkiFRasheed